The Behavioral State Model

The Behavioral State Model provides a comprehensive framework for understanding and predicting human behavior. Created by Jason Hreha, it identifies eight components that determine whether a behavior will occur for a given population.

For strategic planning, these eight components condense into the Behavior Fit Assessment. For intervention design and diagnostic work, the full model provides granular analytical power.

Quick Start: Behavior Fit Assessment

Most practitioners need rapid behavior evaluation, not deep diagnosis. The Behavior Fit Assessment distills the BSM into three actionable dimensions:

Rule: If any dimension scores below 6, you’re forcing, not matching.

For the full methodology, see Behavior Fit Assessment.

The Full Model: Eight Components

When a seemingly well‑matched behavior isn’t performing, or when you need to design targeted interventions, the full Behavioral State Model reveals which specific factors are limiting behavior.

How Behavior Fit Assessment Maps to BSM

BEHAVIOR FIT ASSESSMENT           BEHAVIORAL STATE MODEL (8 Components)

┌─────────────────────┐           ┌─────────────────────────────────┐
│                     │           │ 1. PERSONALITY                  │
│   IDENTITY FIT      │ ◄──────── │    Core traits, values,         │
│                     │           │    preferences                  │
│   "Does this align  │           ├─────────────────────────────────┤
│    with who they    │           │ 2. PERCEPTION                   │
│    see themselves   │           │    Beliefs about behavior,      │
│    as?"             │           │    perceived feasibility        │
│                     │           ├─────────────────────────────────┤
│                     │           │ 3. SOCIAL STATUS                │
│                     │           │    Position, influence on       │
│                     │           │    behavior acceptability       │
└─────────────────────┘           └─────────────────────────────────┘

┌─────────────────────┐           ┌─────────────────────────────────┐
│                     │           │ 4. ABILITIES                    │
│   CAPABILITY FIT    │ ◄──────── │    Skills, knowledge,           │
│                     │           │    physical capacity            │
│   "Can they         │           ├─────────────────────────────────┤
│    actually do      │           │ 5. PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT         │
│    this?"           │           │    (constraints + affordances)  │
│                     │           │    Barriers, tools, cues        │
└─────────────────────┘           └─────────────────────────────────┘

┌─────────────────────┐           ┌─────────────────────────────────┐
│                     │           │ 6. EMOTIONS                     │
│   CONTEXT FIT       │ ◄──────── │    Current state, compatibility │
│                     │           │    with behavior                │
│   "Does their       │           ├─────────────────────────────────┤
│    environment      │           │ 7. MOTIVATIONS                  │
│    support this?"   │           │    Goals, drives, incentives    │
│                     │           ├─────────────────────────────────┤
│                     │           │ 8. SOCIAL ENVIRONMENT           │
│                     │           │    Norms, peer behavior,        │
│                     │           │    support structures           │
└─────────────────────┘           └─────────────────────────────────┘

Component Definitions

Identity Components (map to Identity Fit):

1. Personality: Core traits, values, and preferences that remain relatively stable over time.

BS-0039

Does the behavior align with who this person fundamentally is? (Note: traits can change via intervention, but plan for long horizons and modest average effects.)

BS-0046

1. Perception: Beliefs about the behavior, including whether it’s valuable, feasible, and worth doing. What does the person think will happen if they perform this behavior?

2. Social Status/Situation: The person’s social position and how it affects behavior acceptability. Would performing this behavior enhance or threaten their standing?

See: Identity Fit, Personality, and Durable Behavior.

Capability Components (map to Capability Fit):

1. Abilities: Skills, knowledge, and physical capacity to perform the behavior. Can they actually do what’s required?

2. Physical Environment: The physical setting that can constrain or enable behavior, including access to tools, time constraints, physical barriers, and cues/affordances that make the behavior easier.

Context Components (map to Context Fit):

1. Emotions: Current emotional state and its compatibility with the behavior. Does how they feel right now support or inhibit the action?

2. Motivations: Active goals, drives, and incentives. Is there something pulling them toward this behavior right now?

3. Social Environment: Norms, peer behavior, and social support structures. Do the people around them support this behavior?

When to Use Each Level

Use Behavior Fit Assessment For

• Strategic planning (evaluating which behavior to target)
• Rapid screening (assessing multiple candidate behaviors)
• Communication (explaining behavior selection decisions to stakeholders)
• Initial prioritization (before committing to deep research)

Use Full BSM For

• Diagnostic work (when a behavior isn’t performing as expected)
• Intervention design (identifying specific barriers to address)
• Research planning (determining what to investigate in user research)
• Troubleshooting (understanding why a well‑matched behavior is failing)

Diagnostic Application: The Limiting Factor Analysis

When behavior isn’t occurring, one or more BSM components is acting as a bottleneck.

Step 1: Score All Eight Components

For the target behavior and population, score each component 1–10:

Step 2: Identify Limiting Factors

Components scoring below 6 are potential blockers. The lowest‑scoring component is often the primary bottleneck.

Key insight: Behavior probability is determined by the weakest component. A behavior scoring 9 on seven components but 3 on Abilities will fail. Fix the 3 first.

Step 3: Design Targeted Interventions

For each limiting component, design interventions that raise the score:

Step 4: Re‑score and Verify

After intervention, re‑score the limiting components. Did the intervention work? If not, what’s still blocking?

Example: Medication Adherence Diagnosis (Illustrative)

Situation: Patients aren’t taking prescribed medication consistently.

Behavior Fit Assessment (Quick Screen):

• Identity Fit: 6/10 (patients see themselves as wanting to be healthy)
• Capability Fit: 8/10 (physically able to take pills)
• Context Fit: 4/10 (environment doesn’t support behavior)

Verdict: Context Fit is the bottleneck. Dig deeper with full BSM.

Full BSM diagnosis (example scores):

Intervention priorities:

1. Perception (4): Provide clear evidence of benefit; reduce uncertainty with concrete expectations
2. Motivations (3): Immediate feedback loops (progress visibility, meaningful confirmation of benefit)
3. Physical enablers (4): Cues and triggers (pill containers, reminders, routine anchors)

Integration with the DRIVE Framework

The BSM enhances each DRIVE phase:

Calibration and Reliability

Scoring Guidance

Use a 1–10 scale with consistent anchors:

Ensuring Reliability

• Calibrate raters with 5 “gold‑standard” cases before scoring
• Target inter‑rater reliability κ ≥ 0.7 (rule‑of‑thumb target; document your approach)
• Use behavioral observation and user research data, not assumptions
• Re‑calibrate when switching contexts or populations

Causal Caution

BSM components are diagnostic indicators, not guaranteed intervention levers. When designing interventions:

• Test one primary lever at a time to isolate effects
• Avoid attribution error by measuring component changes directly
• Verify that changing a component actually changes behavior

Key Takeaways

1. Behavior Fit Assessment for strategy; full BSM for diagnosis. Most decisions need the simplified version. Go deep when troubleshooting.
2. The minimum component is the bottleneck. Behavior probability is limited by the weakest factor, not the average.
3. Identity components matter most for selection. If Personality, Perception, or Social Status score low, the behavior probably isn’t right.
4. Context components are often fixable. Emotions, Motivations, and Environment can often be addressed through design, if Identity and Capability fit.
5. Use data, not assumptions. Scores should be grounded in observation and research.

Frequently asked questions

What is the Behavioral State Model (BSM)?

A diagnostic framework for predicting whether a behavior will occur by scoring eight components (including stable individual differences and context constraints). It is used to find the limiting factor when a behavior is not happening.

How does BSM relate to the Behavior Fit Assessment?

The Behavior Fit Assessment is the strategic shortcut: Identity Fit, Capability Fit, and Context Fit. BSM is the deeper diagnostic: it decomposes those dimensions into eight components to explain why a score is low and what is actually blocking behavior.

Is BSM deterministic?

No. It is a structured way to reason about constraints and probabilities. Use it to avoid the common mistake of treating behavior as a persuasion problem when the limiting factor is ability, environment, or identity misfit.

What is the minimum-component rule?

Behavior is limited by its weakest prerequisite. If one component is below threshold, overall probability collapses even if the average looks good.

When should you change the behavior instead of trying to fix the blockers?

When the limiting factor is in Identity Fit (e.g., stable preferences/traits) or when the context constraints are not realistically changeable. In those cases, behavior matching (selecting a different behavior) is usually higher leverage than intervention tactics.

Attribution: The Behavioral State Model was created by Jason Hreha. Learn more at The Behavioral Scientist.

See also:

• Behavior Fit Assessment: The simplified strategic version
• Behavior Matching: How to apply behavior fit screening in practice
• DRIVE Framework: The execution process for Behavioral Strategy

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