Adoption Chain Mapping

Map buyer, champion, and end user behaviors. Calculate the Chain Risk Score: the weakest link gates rollout.

• Buyer - research, evaluate, approve.
• Champion - advocate, implement, train.
• End user - adopt, use, advocate.

Rule: Do not scale until the lowest link meets the domain threshold for the target behavior. Use Δ-B and time to first behavior for each role.

Download the worksheet: Adoption Chain Worksheet.

Chain Risk Score (CRS) #

For rollouts involving Buyer, Champion, and End User, score each role’s Behavior Readiness (0-100) from a pilot based on observed completion of the role-critical behavior in a defined window.

• Buyer Readiness (BR_buyer): % of targeted buyers who complete the approve-to-purchase behavior in the pilot window.
• Champion Readiness (BR_champ): % who complete implement-and-train to spec.
• User Readiness (BR_user): % who adopt and perform the target behavior at least N times in the window.

CRS = min(BR_buyer, BR_champ, BR_user)

Gating rule: Compare CRS with a pre-registered threshold justified for the target behavior, domain, and stakes. CRS describes the lowest observed role-completion rate; it is not a validated probability of whole-chain success. No universal numeric cutoff establishes safety or regulatory readiness.

Time box: Evaluate over a defined Pilot Window (for example 14 or 30 days), not cumulatively.

Worksheet fields #

• Role → target behavior → denominator → completions → BR_% → limiting factors (BSM components) → notes.

Illustrative example: BR_buyer 85%, BR_champ 62%, BR_user 78% → CRS 62%. If this pilot pre-registered a 70% rollout threshold, it would pause rollout to investigate champion completion. Abilities and the Physical Environment are possible explanations to test; the role rate alone cannot identify the cause. The numbers and threshold are examples, not observed results or general safety standards.

Denominator rule: count every role exposed in the pilot window rather than respondents or completers alone.