Behavior Opportunity Size Calculator #

Behavior Opportunity Size (BOS) estimates the value of a candidate behavior for a defined population and period. It combines four inputs:

BOS = Addressable users × Feasible frequency × Net value per behavior × Probability of adoption.

Choose one period, such as a month or a year. Use the same period for frequency and adoption probability. Use one value unit throughout, whether a currency or a clearly defined utility measure. The result is in that value unit per chosen period.

Enter your assumptions #

Name the period and value unit, then enter all four numeric values. Use nonnegative numbers and an adoption probability from 0 to 1. A zero is a valid estimate; an empty field means an input is still missing. Add the population, assumptions, and sources when available so the saved estimate retains its context.

Read the result #

The lower and upper scenarios change all four inputs together by 20 percent. Adoption probability is capped at 1. Because the inputs multiply, the resulting BOS range is wider than 20 percent. These are assumption scenarios, not confidence intervals or measured forecasts. The base scenario uses exactly the values you entered.

Frequency should describe behavior among adopters; avoid reducing it again for the same adoption estimate. Net value should reflect the relevant cost of each behavior. The calculator does not establish that the behavior is feasible, that its benefits are causal, or that the opportunity will be realized. Use observed behavior and documented sources to improve each input.

The JSON download preserves your period, value unit, and any population, assumptions, or source notes you entered alongside the base estimate and scenarios. Use the BOS Worksheet to record further uncertainties and review decisions. Compare candidate behaviors on the same basis before making a decision. For the broader selection process, see the methodology.