How to Validate Behavior Market Fit

Definition. Behavior Market Fit (BMF) is the gate where a defined population can and will perform the target behavior in realistic context. Validation means observing attempts, completion, and failure modes in the environments where the behavior must occur.

From Behavioral Strategy, developed by Jason Hreha.

What you are validating (BMF is not a survey)

To validate BMF you must confirm, in real context:

  • Behavior is operationally defined (who/what/when/where).
  • The behavior chain is feasible (critical steps are doable without heroic effort).
  • Identity, Capability, and Context Fit clear thresholds for the median target user.
  • Measurement is possible (you can instrument or reliably observe the behavior).

Axiom. If you can’t observe the behavior, you can’t validate BMF.

Self-reported intent is systematically weaker than observed behavior for predicting action.

BS-0029

How this differs from common validation approaches

  • Not a survey: intent is supportive data; it is not feasibility.
  • Not a usability test: you are validating end-to-end completion in real constraints, including off-platform steps.
  • Not PMF: BMF is earlier; it asks whether the behavior is feasible before scaling solution design.

The validation protocol (7 steps)

  1. Write the target behavior precisely.
    • Use an operational definition, not an outcome statement.
  2. Select the 2–4 contexts that matter most.
    • Contexts are where BMF fails (time pressure, privacy, device constraints, social setting, regulation).
  3. Pre-register a simple pass/fail rule.
    • Use thresholds as heuristics and document them in a decision memo.
    • Starter heuristics: <div class="heuristics-box" role="note" aria-label="Heuristics"> Starter heuristics – calibrate by domain.
    • Problem Market Fit: active solution seeking 40–80 percent depending on domain and segment.
    • Behavior Market Fit: observed completion of the target behavior in realistic context 50–75 percent.
    • Solution Market Fit: time to first instance of the target behavior under 5 minutes consumer, under 15 minutes enterprise pilot.
    • Product Market Fit: 90‑day retention of the target behavior, S‑curve adoption pattern, domain‑specific thresholds.

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  1. Observe real attempts (not just retrospective stories).
    • Watch the behavior chain end-to-end (or as close as possible).
    • Capture where people hesitate, abandon, substitute, or workaround.
  2. Score feasibility with the Behavior Fit Assessment (BFA).
    • Identity Fit: “Would they see this as something people like them do?”
    • Capability Fit: “Can they do it reliably?”
    • Context Fit: “Does their environment support it?”
  3. Measure BMF with denominators and windows.
    • Define the denominator (eligible/exposed), window (e.g., first 7 days), and success criteria.
    • Avoid proxy metrics; BMF is about the behavior itself. See Measurement Standards.
  4. Decide: proceed, redesign, or reselect.
    • If BMF is not achieved, do not move to Solution Market Fit work. Return to behavior selection or change constraints.

Boundary conditions (when BMF validation is likely to mislead)

  • Artificial contexts: lab-only tests for behaviors that require real-life constraints (time, social risk, competing priorities).
  • Unrepresentative participants: early enthusiasts do not predict mainstream feasibility.
  • Hidden chain steps: “the hard part” happens off-platform (logistics, paperwork, approvals).
  • Ethics/regulatory mismatch: the behavior is technically possible but unacceptable in the real environment.

What “done” looks like

You can say “BMF achieved” when you have:

  • An operational definition of the target behavior
  • Observations across the key contexts where the behavior must occur
  • A recorded pass/fail rule (thresholds + rationale)
  • Evidence that the behavior completes at an acceptable rate in the window (with denominators)
  • A decision memo documenting failure modes and what was ruled out

Frequently asked questions

What is Behavior Market Fit (BMF)?

Behavior Market Fit is the gate where a defined population can and will perform the target behavior in realistic context.

Can you validate BMF with surveys or intent data?

Surveys can inform hypotheses, but validation requires observing attempts and completion in the contexts where the behavior must occur.

How many contexts should you test?

Start with the 2-4 contexts where feasibility is most likely to break and where the behavior must succeed to matter.

What does a pass or fail rule look like?

Define a completion threshold with a denominator and window, plus an explicit decision rule such as proceed, redesign, or reselect.

What should you do if BMF fails?

Do not move to solution optimization; return to behavior selection, change constraints, or redesign the environment to make the behavior feasible.

See also